Is Earth Able to Avoid Asteroid Collisions? [Now in Space]

The Earth does not yet have the ability to detect all asteroids approaching it. [Photo = NASA]



An asteroid collision with the Earth can happen at any time. There are many different types of asteroids, from those that broke away from the asteroid belt between Jupiter and Mars, to those that suddenly entered the solar system, to even tiny ones that broke away from the moon.



NASA is planning to air a documentary called "Planetary Defenders" this spring. It will cover how to find, track, and calculate orbits for asteroids that have a risk of colliding with the Earth, as well as very small asteroids that are difficult to observe.



NASA explained, "Asteroids are celestial bodies that can be seen in the sky anytime, anywhere," and "Among these, those that have a high possibility of colliding with the Earth are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and are intensively observed."



What would happen if an asteroid with a diameter of several kilometers collided with the Earth? NASA officials warned, "In a word, 'the end of human civilization' is coming." They are saying that a tragedy similar to the extinction of the dinosaurs due to a giant asteroid collision about 60 million years ago will come. NASA



expressed concern that "(if an asteroid several kilometers in diameter collides with the Earth) it will be a 'global disaster' that will lead to the extinction of all life on earth." Fortunately, they said that in the case of asteroids with a diameter of several kilometers or more, current space science technology can track the orbits of about 95% of them.



James Green, NASA's director of planetary science, pointed out that "we do not yet have perfect asteroid response capabilities," and added that "the global astronomy community and others are working together to make up for this shortcoming." NASA explained that



if an asteroid with a diameter of several kilometers collides with the Earth, 'the end of human civilization' will come. [Photo = NASA]



In the case of small asteroids that are difficult to observe, they are discovered by astronomical observatories scattered around the world, reported to the relevant academic societies, and through this, international astronomers and space agencies from each country are working together to respond.



NASA emphasized that "the international cooperation network works together to find, track, and calculate the orbit of asteroids." Regarding the possibility of an asteroid collision, NASA explained, "We know that it is possible," but "We just don't know exactly when it will happen."



Does the Earth have sufficient response capabilities to near-Earth asteroids? Unfortunately, it is not yet perfect. This shortcoming has been revealed several times in real-life cases.



On January 27, 2023, a small planet about 3 to 8 meters in size passed by the Earth. It approached very closely. It came within about 3,600 km of the Earth. It could have easily fallen onto the Earth.



NASA explained at the time, "An asteroid named '2023 BU' passed over southwestern Chile, South America, in the early morning of January 27," and "This asteroid drew attention because it approached the Earth very closely."



The problem is that no one knew about this asteroid in advance as it approached the Earth. An amateur astronomer discovered it on January 21, just before it approached Earth. He reported it to the observatory, and international cooperation began to analyze its trajectory.



There was a similar case in March 2022. The asteroid '2022 EB5' crashed into the atmosphere of the Norwegian Sea on March 11. The asteroid was first detected by the Fiskestepö Observatory in northern Hungary two hours before the impact. It was later reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) of the International Astronomical Union (IAU).



Once the MPC is added to the list, NASA's asteroid collision risk assessment system, 'Scout', automatically tracks the orbit of the asteroid. Then, an emergency notification is sent to related organizations, including the 'Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS),' and additional observations are conducted.



In reality, it is difficult to observe asteroids with such small diameters. There are many cases where they are discovered after approaching the Earth very closely.



The DART spacecraft, which was tasked with colliding with the asteroid and changing its orbit. [Photo = NASA]



There were also some advanced results. It was an attempt to change the orbit of an asteroid that was at risk of colliding with Earth. This was NASA's DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) program.



The DART spacecraft collided with the asteroid Dimorphosha, which is about 160m in diameter, on September 26, 2022. After the collision, various data were analyzed and analyzed to determine that the asteroid's orbital period was reduced by about 32 minutes.



This result showed that a spacecraft made by humans can be artificially dispatched to a target asteroid and change the asteroid's orbit.





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