"Semiconductor Market to Surpass $1 Trillion by 2030... HBM Demand to Increase Further"
Gaurav Gupta, a researcher at Gartner, said at a press conference for "SEMICON Korea 2025" held at COEX in Gangnam-gu, Seoul on the 19th, "I think the global semiconductor industry's sales will exceed 1 trillion dollars by 2030 or 2031," adding, "Graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) processors will drive growth."
Gaurav Gupta, a researcher at Gartner, introduces semiconductor market trends at SEMICON 2025 held at COEX in Gangnam-gu, Seoul on the 19th. [Photo = Reporter Park Ji-eun]
Researcher Gupta explained, "This year, prices will rise due to a supply shortage (of AI memory), and the growth of the automotive semiconductor market, such as advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and auto high-performance computing (HPC), will also drive performance."
Gartner forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% for the GPU and memory-centered semiconductor market from 2023 to 2028. This year's market size is expected to reach $705 billion, up 12.7% from last year's $626 billion.
Investments in data centers by North American big tech companies, including the U.S. government's "Stargate" project, are also driving demand for AI semiconductors.
Clark Cheung, senior director of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), said, "The scale of facility investment by top CSPs will increase from $80 billion in 2018 to $200 billion last year and $250 billion this year," adding, "The portion of servers and data centers in the overall semiconductor market is expected to increase to 34% by 2030."
The growth of HBM, the core of AI semiconductors, is also expected to continue for the time being.
Researcher Gupta said, "HBM will continue to receive a lot of attention this year," adding, "HBM is expected to account for 30.6% of the total DRAM market in 2028, and major suppliers (such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix) are expected to focus on improving yields as their technologies mature."
He added, "The number of layers of HBM is also expected to increase from 8 to 16 and up to 20 in the future (depending on technological maturity)."
It is expected that the prices of memory such as DRAM and NAND will continue to fall until the first quarter of this year, but will gradually rise from the second half of the year.
Researcher Gupta said, "In the case of NAND, prices will fall in the first quarter of this year due to decreased demand for PCs and smartphones, but prices will recover in the second half as supply decreases," and diagnosed, "DRAM is in a similar situation."
Regarding the foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) market, it is expected that the overall growth will be seen, but the dominance of Taiwan's TSMC, the industry leader, will continue.
Clark Chung, Senior Director, said, "As foundries strengthen their advanced packaging, sales will increase and facility investments will also increase through 2026," adding, "Advanced foundry companies include TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics, but difficulties will continue for all except TSMC."
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