The more we observe, the more likely it is that an asteroid will hit us in 2032 [Space Now]

NASA is conducting additional observations of 2024 YR4 as well as precise observations through James Webb and others. [Photo = NASA]



The probability of an asteroid colliding with the Earth, which had soared to over 3%, has dropped to 0%. The probability of collision continues to drop as more precise observations are conducted.



This process shows that it is not easy to observe an asteroid with a diameter of tens of meters approaching the Earth. Most asteroids with a diameter of tens of meters are observed when they approach the Earth or when they pass by. This



means that there is a possibility that an asteroid of a similar size may collide with the Earth without us even knowing.



Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be 40 to 90 meters in diameter. If it collides with the Earth, the expected speed is approximately 17 km/s. NASA analyzed that if this asteroid collides with the Earth, it would release more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.



This is a diagnosis based on the size and power of the asteroid that has fallen to Earth so far. According



to NASA's real-time monitoring results, the probability of the asteroid '2024 YR4', which will approach Earth around 2032, colliding with Earth was analyzed to be 0.28%.



The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory judged the probability of the asteroid colliding with Earth to be 3.1% on the 18th. The probability of the collision was reduced to 1.5% due to new data collected overnight on Wednesday the 19th. Then, on the 20th, it was analyzed to be even lower at 0.28%.



NASA explained that there are still limitations in monitoring all asteroids that are tens of meters in size. [Photo = NASA]



NASA is releasing information about this asteroid in real time through the relevant page. In addition to ground-based telescopes, James Webb and additional space telescopes to be launched in the future will be mobilized.



James Webb plans to conduct a detailed observation of the asteroid in March. NASA's Near Earth Observatory (NEO), which will be launched around September 2027, is also expected to play a role. Around 2028, 2024 YR4 is expected to approach the Earth within about 8 million km.



The collision of the Earth and an asteroid has occurred several times in human history. There have been cases ranging from a major collision that caused the extinction of dinosaurs to the destruction of 2,000㎢ of forests around it.



The most devastating disaster was the Chicxulub impactor that occurred about 66 million years ago on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.



This asteroid was about 10-15 km in size. Large-scale fires, climate change, and dust in the atmosphere blocked sunlight, causing a rapid drop in temperature. This led to the extinction of many species, including dinosaurs.



In 1908, the Tunguska asteroid impact occurred in Siberia, Russia. On June 30, 1908, an asteroid about 50-60 meters in size exploded over the Tunguska region. This asteroid exploded in the Earth's atmosphere, and the explosion generated a very powerful shock wave. The explosion



was about 1,000 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. About 2,000㎢ of forests were destroyed in the Tunguska region.



There was also the Chelyabinsk asteroid impact in 2013. It was about 17 meters in size and also entered the Earth's atmosphere and exploded in the air. The explosion was about 20 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Chelyabinsk and its surrounding areas suffered significant damage. More than 1,500 people were injured. The



'2024 YR4', which is approaching the Earth in 2032, is about 40-90 meters in size. If it collides with the Earth, it is expected to have a similar impact to the Tunguska asteroid impact, based on previous asteroid impacts.



NASA explained, "If an asteroid measuring several kilometers collides with the Earth, it will be a 'global disaster' that will lead to the extinction of life worldwide." Fortunately, they said that for large asteroids (several kilometers or more) in diameter, current space science technology can track the orbits of about 95% of them.



The problem is the very small asteroids, which are only a few meters to tens of meters in size. Earth's space science capabilities are still insufficient to identify all of them.



James Green, NASA's planetary science director, said, "We do not yet have perfect asteroid response capabilities," and "The global astronomy community is working together to make up for this shortcoming."





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