To avoid catastrophe... The core of climate science is [the climate crisis now]
There is a consensus that the future direction of scientific research on climate change should focus on critical points, losses, and damages.
The critical point is a 'tipping point', meaning 'irreversibility' that cannot be reversed. When the concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds the critical point, the environment becomes one that can no longer be returned to its previous state. We face a situation where flora and fauna become extinct due to global warming. It refers to
a dramatic moment when a situation progresses so slightly that it is not noticeable at first, but at some point, everything suddenly begins to change rapidly. Think of a situation
where water dripping into a large bucket at first makes you wonder when it will fill up, but at some point, even a single drop of water can cause the bucket to overflow.
The critical point situation also occurs when the average global temperature exceeds a certain temperature. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change considers the climate change critical point to be when the average global temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
If the temperature rises by 1.5 degrees or more, it means that we can no longer go back to the way it was before. As the average temperature continues to soar, we will fall into catastrophe. There is an international agreement that we must prevent the 1.5 degree rise as much as possible in order for the Earth to not fall into the swamp of climate change.
Loss and damage refers to the voices that say that developed countries that have emitted a lot of greenhouse gases, which are the cause of global warming, should provide financial support to countries that have not.
Europe and the United States, which were the centers of industrialization, were the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, but the actual impact of climate change is being felt by developing countries (Pacific island countries, developing countries, etc.).
The argument is that we should prepare global climate change response and adaptation measures with financial support from developed countries.
Developed countries are avoiding or neglecting their responsibilities, and are only proposing the smallest possible financial support. Discussions surrounding this have been held several times at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP), but there has still been no agreement.
In this situation, the research direction that the scientific approach to climate change should focus on critical points, losses, and damages has been suggested.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the outlines of three types of the Working Group's Seventh Assessment Report at the 62nd General Assembly held in Hangzhou, China from the 24th to the 28th
of last month. The IPCC published the Sixth Assessment Report in 2021 and 2022. The Seventh Assessment Report is scheduled to be published in 2028. The IPCC publishes assessment reports containing the current status and prospects of climate change every five to seven years. The
IPCC presented the following as cross-cutting issues to be addressed in the Seventh Assessment Report: △Climate change thresholds, △Temperature tipping points (overshoots), and other climate change phenomena and scenarios, △Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), △Loss and damage, and △Finance.
The Seventh Assessment Report will begin with the publication of the First Working Group Report (Assessment of the Scientific Basis of Climate Change) scheduled for publication in May 2028, followed by the Second Working Group Report (Assessment of the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Climate Change, scheduled for publication in June 2028) and the Third Working Group Report (Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation, scheduled for publication in August 2028).
Key words of the IPCC's Sixth Report. The Seventh Report, which will be published in 2028, is expected to emphasize critical points, loss and damage. [Photo=Reporter Jeong Jong-oh]
Approximately 400 delegates from member countries participated in this general assembly. Our government participated by forming a delegation comprised of the Korea Meteorological Administration (Chief Representative: Kim Hyeon-gyeong, Director-General of the Climate Science Bureau), the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, and other related ministries and specialized agencies.
A Korea Meteorological Administration official explained, "The significance of this general meeting is that it has decided on the detailed structure and direction of the report, thereby establishing the basis for utilizing the report in international climate change negotiations, including the 2nd Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement in 2028."
The 1st Working Group report of the 7th report will consist of three parts: knowledge developed since the 6th Assessment Report, possible future prospects based on policies, and information and services for responding to climate change.
Compared to the 6th Assessment Report, a chapter has been added that can forecast the effects of policies such as climate change critical points, temperature tipping points, and climate services.
The Early Warning System promoted by the UN is expected to be emphasized, and the need for providing sophisticated climate services is expected to be noted. 'Clarifying the cause of climate change' will be covered in detail not only on a global scale but also on a regional scale.
The 2nd Working Group report emphasizes the composition of evaluating regional impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities, thereby strengthening communication with policymakers. For the global sector, the latest topics of the current climate change negotiations were reflected, such as the addition of separate chapters on 'response to loss and damage' and 'finance.'
The third working group report highlighted the need for finance among the means of climate mitigation. A new chapter was created on the Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) approach, which has emerged as a means of reduction. It was decided to comprehensively evaluate the potential, limitations, and risks of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology.
There was also discussion on the report on carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture, utilization, and storage methodology. There was discussion on updating the emission calculation methodology for carbon dioxide removal, carbon capture, utilization, and storage that has developed since the 2006 guidelines.
Many countries, including Korea, Japan, Chile, Norway, and the UK, have expressed support for recognizing tidal flats, seaweed, and subtidal sediments (areas that are always submerged under water and not affected by high and low tides) as new carbon sinks.
The report on carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture, utilization, and storage methodology is scheduled to be approved in its outline at the next IPCC general meeting in the second half of this year.
Jang Dong-eon, head of the Korea Meteorological Administration, said, "The IPCC report is a very important report that will be used not only for domestic climate crisis response policies but also as the most important basis for international climate change negotiations." He added, "As the lead agency representing climate change science, the Korea Meteorological Administration will actively support the report-writing activities of domestic experts through cooperation with relevant ministries, and strive to ensure that excellent domestic policies and research cases are reflected in the report."
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