'Goddess of Victory: Nike' China release D-1... Shift-up performance upgrade expected

The domestic subculture game 'Goddess of Victory: Nike' is one day away from its launch in China.



According to the game industry on the 21st, Chinese publisher Tencent will begin the local service of Goddess of Victory: Nike (Chinese name 胜利女神: 新的希望) on the 22nd. As of now, the number of pre-registrations in China on Tencent's official website is close to 9.6 million, raising expectations for its success.



A day before its launch in China, the number of local pre-registrations for 'Goddess of Victory: Nike' exceeded 9.6 million. [Photo = Tencent]



Goddess of Victory: Nike, developed by Shiftup (CEO Kim Hyung-tae), is a gun-shooting RPG that has been a hit in Korea as well as in Japan, the home of subculture, and North America since its launch in November 2022, thanks to differentiating elements such as an immersive story development and in-game characters portrayed as 8 heads tall. According to market research firm Sensor Tower, the game has surpassed $1 billion (about 1.4 trillion won) in cumulative sales in just 2 years and 3 months since its global release.



The securities industry is also looking forward to Goddess of Victory: Nike's performance in China. As it has been revealed that a separate build and local content specialized for China will be provided, and characters with different specifications from the previously serviced global version will be provided, some analyses are suggesting that the so-called 'future-seeing' effect, which has a considerable impact on the success of subculture games, will be limited.



Lim Hee-seok, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "The consensus for Goddess of Victory: Nike in China is estimated to be around 800 million won in annual average daily sales," and "It seems that it is possible to rank within the top 7 in iOS sales on the day of release, and if the ARPDAU (average sales per daily active user) comes out at the global level, a 'surprise' ranking within the top 5 is possible."



Also, "The number of iOS downloads on the day before and on the day of release is expected to be 1 million, and the DAU (daily active users) is expected to be around 500,000," and "If ARPDAU records 6,000 won, we estimate that the initial iOS daily sales of over 3 billion won are possible. Nike's daily retention is 53%, the highest among major global subculture games."



However, the fact that there have been no long-running cases among domestic subculture games that have previously entered the Chinese market could be a variable for its success. Goddess of Victory: Nike, games that had proven popular in the global market before its release in China, only soared in rankings immediately after release, and there are currently no cases that have maintained a spot in the top 100 of the Chinese Apple App Store sales rankings. This is because Chinese self-developed and published companies, including Hoyoverse, have considerable market dominance.



Meanwhile, the securities industry is predicting that Shift Up's sales and operating profit in the second quarter of this year will surge 116% and 160% compared to the previous quarter, respectively, achieving a 'quantum jump'. This is because along with Goddess of Victory: Nike's Chinese thread, another hit, 'Stella Blade', is scheduled to be released for PC on June 12. Stella Blade was released exclusively for PlayStation 5 in February of last year and sold 2 million copies in just 10 months.





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